Catch rebounds, fish signals in focus
A five-day research outlook for October 20–24 pairs modeled conditions with the Taiwan fleet’s last observed cells. Encounter probabilities around the fleet remain unvalidated.
Taiwan-origin reported catch · 2026 season
Catch reporting · October 11–17
Fish-presence outlook · October 20–24 Pacific Saury methodologyThis week, the fish-presence research gains a dated map. Readers can follow the same model across five future days, compare the colored areas with the fleet’s last observed cells, and see where conditions fall outside the model’s training experience. The maps help focus the next checks on fish availability. They do not yet establish the chance that a Taiwan vessel will find saury.
Season outlook
Base case assumes the fleet begins returning by the end of October (BX-TRADE field assessment).
- Low endModel’s lower estimate
- 18,992.0MT
- Model quantile; coverage under this return assumption remains unvalidated.
- Base caseOur principal season estimate
- 23,939.2MT
- Assumes the fleet begins returning by the end of October.
- Upper limitPhysical capacity ceiling
- 34,283.6MT
- Calculated fleet capacity, with no probability assigned to this endpoint.
- Catch this week
- 2,601.7MT
- ↑ 358.8%vs WK19 reported catch
- Season catch reported
- 18,207.0MT
- 46.4%of the historical mean at WK20
- Catch rate required
- 2.46×
- the recent four-week catch per boat-day, to reach the base case
- Premium share
- 8.72%
- No. 2 and larger · at least 100 g per fish
Different season-ending assumption; separate from the base case.
Fish-presence outlook · October 20–24
The opening map shows a patchy band of supported conditions east of Japan. The relative view separates lower and higher modeled potential within the colored cells. The probability view estimates detection under a specified Japanese research-net protocol. Neither view measures the amount of fish in a cell.
Grey, hatched water has no supported estimate. It must remain unknown. Fewer cells meet the environmental-support rule later in the outlook; that change does not demonstrate a retreat or disappearance of fish.
The diamonds mark occupied one-degree fleet reference cells observed on October 15. They are historical locations, not predicted vessel positions. A diamond in colored water does not validate the model there: all latest Taiwan positions lie outside the survey models’ geographic training areas.
For supply planning, use the maps to identify questions for fresh fish observations and fleet follow-up. A darker cell alone does not justify raising the weekly catch or season estimate. Fishing activity, weather access, catchability and reporting timing still need separate evidence.
INTERACTIVE RESEARCH MAP
RESEARCH EXHIBIT · BX-TRADE SAIRA WEEKLY · ISSUE NO. 20
Experimental research output · Taiwan encounter calibration pending
Research-net detection estimate
調查網具捕獲秋刀魚的機率
Valid 2026-10-20 · UTC daily mean · source cycle R20261015
Estimated saury detection under the Japanese research-net protocol used from 2024. A fixed 0–100% scale applies to every date; unsupported environmental combinations have no percentage. These estimates are not calibrated Taiwan commercial encounter probabilities. Experimental research output. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.
Taiwan encounter accuracy remains unvalidated. Grey water means unknown; smaller colored coverage does not show fish retreat.
Source: Saved SP-2 survey model; E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information; Global Fishing Watch; Natural Earth. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.© 2026 Baixian. All rights reserved. No reproduction without written permission.
Baixian (2026). BX-TRADE SAIRA Weekly, Issue No. 20. Experimental fish-model outlook, October 20–24, 2026.
Research update: dated signals, explicit limits
A five-day fish-signal layer
The existing fleet, fish-sampling and current context now has five dated model maps beside it. The new layer shows where the saved fish model points.
Unknown water remains visible
Both map views mask unsupported environmental combinations. Fixed scales make dates comparable without filling missing support with a fish estimate.
Validation remains a separate test
The maps use the existing fitted model and retained ocean forecasts. No new model was fitted for this map series. No accuracy gain or fish-driven adjustment to catch tonnes has been established.
Season outlook: the base case and its assumptions
TSSFA (台灣區遠洋魷魚暨秋刀魚公會) reports 2,601.7 MT (metric tons) during October 11–17. Season reported catch is 18,207.0 MT. These are reported-week totals; they do not identify when or where each fish was caught.
We assume the fleet begins returning by the end of October. Under that assumption, the season base case is 23,939.2 MT. The separate timing sensitivity is 35,130.3 MT. It tests a different season-ending assumption and remains separate from the base case.
The model assigns a 1-in-5 chance of finishing below 18,992.0 MT. That chance remains unvalidated for the end-of-October case. The top, 34,283.6 MT, is the most the fleet could catch under the stated assumption. The two ends have different meanings.
E01 Season trajectory and the registered base case, from the sealed WK20 issue. The stated end-of-October assumption remains essential.
Catch recovery: vessel presence and catch per boat-day
Reported catch rose sharply this week. Its accounting decomposition separates observed vessel numbers, days per vessel and catch per vessel-day. Fewer reports alone cannot identify boats that returned, stopped fishing or remained at sea. The decomposition does not by itself establish a biological or weather cause.
The remaining calendar also matters for the season capacity. A change in the catch estimate should be explained from the final catch, fleet and timing figures. The addition of a fish map does not itself explain a change in supply.
E41 Reported-catch decomposition separates hull exposure, days and catch per hull-day. It is an accounting comparison, not proof that currents or fish abundance caused the change.
Grade mix: premium share and procurement
The season-to-date large-fish share is 8.72%. The category covers No. 2 and larger, at least 100 g per fish. Read the weekly mix beside the season total; a small weekly catch can produce a sharp change in its size shares.
Grades describe fish in the reported catch. They do not measure the size or abundance of fish remaining at sea. Procurement decisions still need the available lot sizes and specifications; map color supplies neither.
E03 Reported grade composition. No. 2 and larger means larger fish, rather than increasing grade-number order.
Fishing grounds: evidence, signals and limits
The retained fleet window covers October 11–15: 323 observed boat-days across 77 vessels, with 72 latest vessel positions. One observed boat on one day contributes one boat-day. These counts measure observed presence, not confirmed fishing or saury catches.
The map’s last fleet date is October 15. The packet does not establish positions for October 16–17. Keep that gap visible even though the catch reporting week runs through October 17.
Temperature and currents describe conditions around the dated reference cells. The fish model uses them statistically. It does not follow a fish school through the water or establish that currents moved fish toward a vessel. The existing fleet-and-fish context map remains a separate source of background evidence.
The existing area ranking answers a different question from the new research-net maps. Carry its interpretation from the final issue output. Neither a fleet footprint nor an area rank supplies a calibrated Taiwan encounter percentage.
E51 The registered HGB-L and HSI-L-L fleet-ground reference rankings. This target differs from the research-net fish-presence model above; a ranking is not a Taiwan encounter probability. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.
Week ahead: fish signals and weather access
The catch-reference week is October 18–24. It was already underway when this draft was prepared. Its whole-week references must remain separate from the fully future October 20–24 fish maps and the agencies’ wave-forecast windows.
The weekly catch figures are yardsticks for later reported totals. The methods retain their measured errors and baseline comparisons; they have not earned the fixed qualification for a weekly point forecast. A new fish map does not change that result.
NOAA/NCEP’s GFS-Wave forecast reaches 5.41 m at its native grid point nearest the fleet; ECMWF’s IFS wave forecast reaches 6.25 m at its own nearest point. Both use the October 19 00 UTC cycle over the following seven days, cited as issued. Keep the 4 m working line and the fleet’s 4–7 m working range distinct from these forecast maxima. These are agency sea-state forecasts, separate from our fish-model outlook.
Watch for fresh, species-confirmed fish observations, updated complete-day fleet positions, and the final agencies’ wave exposure around those positions. Compare later reported catch with its dated reference. A single favorable signal cannot settle all four questions.
E33 NOAA/NCEP and ECMWF model output cited as issued. BX-TRADE issues no weather or sea-state forecast. Observed conditions and future agency output are separate.
E45 Weekly references within the season path. These are reference values, not qualified weekly point forecasts.
Validation: what the evidence can support
The mapped calculations reproduce independently. That checks implementation. Accuracy requires fish observations that were not used to construct the model, sampled with known timing, gear and opportunities, including sampled non-detections.
Environmental support and geographic transfer are separate checks. A colored cell passes the stated environmental-support rule; it does not certify accuracy on Taiwan grounds. A blank cell is unknown, and the current maps provide no total predictive interval.
The research therefore adds a useful spatial reading of the saved model. It does not establish fish-school movement or a current-adjusted catch estimate. Keep the fish, activity and reported-catch records separate until their links qualify.
Supporting evidence
E62Fleet, sampled fish and current context · E62 research illustration
E62 The original E62 image remains unchanged. It supplies dated fleet, fish-sampling and current context, separate from the new model maps. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.
The original E62 image remains unchanged. It supplies dated fleet, fish-sampling and current context, separate from the new model maps. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.
E01Season trajectory and the registered base case, from the sealed WK20 issue. The stated end-of-October assumption remains essential.
E01 Season trajectory and the registered base case, from the sealed WK20 issue. The stated end-of-October assumption remains essential.
E03Reported grade composition. No. 2 and larger means larger fish, rather than increasing grade-number order.
E03 Reported grade composition. No. 2 and larger means larger fish, rather than increasing grade-number order.
E04The fleet has moved east across 19 weeks of 2026; median half-effort radius 39 nm.
E04 The fleet has moved east across 19 weeks of 2026; median half-effort radius 39 nm.
E05Our fleet sat 0.3° south of the band's cold edge; the 100 m 5 °C isotherm lay 0.8° south of its mean.
E05 Our fleet sat 0.3° south of the band's cold edge; the 100 m 5 °C isotherm lay 0.8° south of its mean.
E06The prior and the weekly model are 0.5% apart. That is a gap between two numbers, not an error bar.
E06 The prior and the weekly model are 0.5% apart. That is a gap between two numbers, not an error bar.
E08The allocation does not clip the published interval: the bull path ends at 34,284 MT of 59,148.
E08 The allocation does not clip the published interval: the bull path ends at 34,284 MT of 59,148.
E15Catch since 2014: down by roughly three quarters. Fleet down by roughly a sixth: 91 vessels to 75.
E15 Catch since 2014: down by roughly three quarters. Fleet down by roughly a sixth: 91 vessels to 75.
E16Week 21: within 156 nm of week 19 half the time, 437 nm 95% of the time. No direction forecast.
E16 Week 21: within 156 nm of week 19 half the time, 437 nm 95% of the time. No direction forecast.
E19Persistence's 80% ring for week 19: 298 nm. The fleet went 109 nm, inside its 50% ring.
E19 Persistence's 80% ring for week 19: 298 nm. The fleet went 109 nm, inside its 50% ring.
E246% of the pre-ceiling posterior sits above the fleet's capacity to October's end.
E24 6% of the pre-ceiling posterior sits above the fleet's capacity to October's end.
E26The band narrows because less season remains — and ends above the likelihood floor, 0.0711.
E26 The band narrows because less season remains — and ends above the likelihood floor, 0.0711.
E27The commercial convention puts age-1 at No.2 · 2號. FRA's 2026 L50: No.4 · 4號, two grades down.
E27 The commercial convention puts age-1 at No.2 · 2號. FRA's 2026 L50: No.4 · 4號, two grades down.
E33NOAA/NCEP and ECMWF model output cited as issued. BX-TRADE issues no weather or sea-state forecast. Observed conditions and future agency output are separate.
E33 NOAA/NCEP and ECMWF model output cited as issued. BX-TRADE issues no weather or sea-state forecast. Observed conditions and future agency output are separate.
E354 calls made. 1 resolved. Here is every one.
E35 4 calls made. 1 resolved. Here is every one.
E3647 attempted, 6 earned; 0 of 2 version gates met. Each row sits under the gate it serves.
E36 47 attempted, 6 earned; 0 of 2 version gates met. Each row sits under the gate it serves.
E38Most weeks, the fleet moves further than it spreads. Median move 92 nm; median half-effort radius 25 nm.
E38 Most weeks, the fleet moves further than it spreads. Median move 92 nm; median half-effort radius 25 nm.
E39The fleet is where it was: off by 183 nm a week ahead, the baseline. No better one is established.
E39 The fleet is where it was: off by 183 nm a week ahead, the baseline. No better one is established.
E40The point asks catch per hull-day to run at x2.46 this month's; 1 of 5 past seasons did after week 20.
E40 The point asks catch per hull-day to run at x2.46 this month's; 1 of 5 past seasons did after week 20.
E41Reported-catch decomposition separates hull exposure, days and catch per hull-day. It is an accounting comparison, not proof that currents or fish abundance caused the change.
E41 Reported-catch decomposition separates hull exposure, days and catch per hull-day. It is an accounting comparison, not proof that currents or fish abundance caused the change.
E42Week 20: 77 roster hulls were in the box in 2026. In 2019–2023 the same week held 52 to 75.
E42 Week 20: 77 roster hulls were in the box in 2026. In 2019–2023 the same week held 52 to 75.
E4336 registered tests. 2 passed. 5 of 31 refusals have a registered next route.
E43 36 registered tests. 2 passed. 5 of 31 refusals have a registered next route.
E45Weekly references within the season path. These are reference values, not qualified weekly point forecasts.
E45 Weekly references within the season path. These are reference values, not qualified weekly point forecasts.
E4934% of weeks carry 89% of the error. Without them, last week's rate is off by 0.399 log.
E49 34% of weeks carry 89% of the error. Without them, last week's rate is off by 0.399 log.
E50Full-week upper bound: HGB 38.8% vs 34.4%, 3 of 3. At issue time: HGB-L 29.8% vs 27.9%, 1 of 3.
E50 Full-week upper bound: HGB 38.8% vs 34.4%, 3 of 3. At issue time: HGB-L 29.8% vs 27.9%, 1 of 3.
E51The registered HGB-L and HSI-L-L fleet-ground reference rankings. This target differs from the research-net fish-presence model above; a ranking is not a Taiwan encounter probability. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.
E51 The registered HGB-L and HSI-L-L fleet-ground reference rankings. This target differs from the research-net fish-presence model above; a ranking is not a Taiwan encounter probability. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.
E5296% of our hull-days sat in the 15.4–20.6 °C band; its cold edge held at 154°E.
E52 96% of our hull-days sat in the 15.4–20.6 °C band; its cold edge held at 154°E.
E53The water at our cells was 3.0 °C warmer than normal this week.
E53 The water at our cells was 3.0 °C warmer than normal this week.
E54Other fleets entered cells near ours 2 times in three nights to 09-26.
E54 Other fleets entered cells near ours 2 times in three nights to 09-26.
E55Copernicus Marine Service's forecast of sea temperature for 25 October 2026.
E55 Copernicus Marine Service's forecast of sea temperature for 25 October 2026.
E04B6 weeks of the fleet: 432 nm south-east from week 14 to week 19; 91% of hull-days in the band.
E04B 6 weeks of the fleet: 432 nm south-east from week 14 to week 19; 91% of hull-days in the band.
E19P15 calls: season RMSE 0.994 log. Condition 1 is to beat the baseline, 0.972; it does not meet it.
E19P 15 calls: season RMSE 0.994 log. Condition 1 is to beat the baseline, 0.972; it does not meet it.
Sources and coverage
Research detail: the saved SP-2 2026 fold uses 45 survey operations. Its four inputs are surface temperature, surface-minus-92.326 m temperature, and eastward/northward surface currents. The probability reference is net_2024_onward. The source fields retain cycle R20261015; actual model origin is October 19, 2026, 15:59:41 Taipei. Maps use every sixth original node without interpolation. Each date has 2,920 finite grid nodes. Joint environmental support covers 643, 626, 594, 467 and 295 nodes on October 20–24 respectively. These counts describe grid support, not fish abundance or accuracy. Relative bands are fixed across the five dates and can emphasize small differences. No new fit, outcome score or provider capture was made for the map series. The NPFC tracker retrieved for this issue is explicitly dated October 10; retrieval on October 19 does not make it an October 19 cumulative. Catch figures here remain reported totals, not a verified series of physical landings.
Interval construction: censored at the binding ceiling.
THE TOP OF THIS BAND IS A PHYSICAL LIMIT, NOT A FORECAST. Under the censored treatment the upper bound IS the binding ceiling, the fleet's capacity: the catch landed plus every vessel fishing at the panel's maximum sustained daily rate on every day left to the last fishing day, so the bound carries no probability content and no model uncertainty. Only the lower bound is a model quantile. P(fill) is the quantity that says how likely that limit is to be reached. This week that limit is 34,283.6 MT, the fleet's capacity to 31 October (week 22, the base case's last fishing week); the allocation, 59,148 MT, sits 24,864.4 MT above it and cannot be reached in the base case.
ONE-SIDED. The upper bound is the fleet's capacity to 31 October (week 22, the base case's last fishing week), which the base case cannot exceed, so this interval cannot miss high. The coverage record measured the band with the allocation at its top: on the 29 backfilled fold-anchors it missed 4 times LOW and 0 times high. No anchor has been measured with capacity at the top.
this week's band is 63.9% of point, with capacity at its top. The measured mean width, 91.5% of point across the 29 anchors against 60.9% for the truncated alternative it beat, is the allocation-topped band's. Criterion 4 measures width and was NOT consulted: the pre-registration ranked coverage above width before any number existed, and criterion 2 decided.
THE WIDTH IS THE BINDING CEILING MINUS THE LOWER BOUND. In the base case the ceiling is the fleet's capacity to 31 October (week 22, the base case's last fishing week), which moves each week with the catch landed and the days left; this week it is 34,283.6 MT against a lower bound of 18,992.0 MT, 15,291.6 MT apart.
WHEN THE POSTERIOR MEDIAN SITS ABOVE THE BINDING CEILING, THIS BAND COLLAPSES. The lower bound is the 20th percentile and the upper is the fleet's capacity to 31 October (week 22, the base case's last fishing week), so if the median passes capacity the two meet. This week the median is 23,460.4 MT, 10,823.2 MT below capacity. No floor is applied here; the width is published so the condition is visible in the object.
Notices and terms of use
The English notices govern. The Chinese text is the approved summary.
Important Notices, Licensing & Terms of Use · 重要聲明、授權與使用條款
This publication is prepared by Global Trade Business Group (BX-TRADE) Commodity Research & Strategy, part of Baixian (百鮮). It is issued for general distribution and is not offered for sale or by subscription. Its distribution grants no licence to, and discloses none of, the proprietary models, methods, code, parameters, data and records that produce it.
Important Disclosures
Nature of this document. This report is a commodity research publication. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, an offer, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any commodity, financial instrument, or derivative position. This document is not a securities research report within the meaning of applicable securities regulations in any jurisdiction.
No reliance. The information, opinions, forecasts, and reference figures contained in this document are based on historical data spanning the 2019–2025 observation period (seven complete Pacific saury TW-origin seasons) and proprietary statistical models. While BX-TRADE has exercised reasonable care in preparing this document, it makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of any information herein. Readers should not rely on this document as the sole basis for any commercial or investment decision and should conduct their own independent analysis and due diligence. BX-TRADE accepts no obligation to update, revise, or correct this document following its publication.
Forward-looking statements. This document contains forward-looking statements, including catch projections, reference figures, probability estimates, and season-level assessments. These statements are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of BX-TRADE. Actual results may differ materially from any projections or estimates contained herein due to, among other factors, changes in oceanographic conditions, fleet behavior, regulatory interventions, weather events, market conditions, and biological variability. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this document. Past performance of the fishery, individual seasons, or model forecasts is not a reliable indicator of future outcomes.
Limitation of liability. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, BX-TRADE, Baixian, and their respective directors, officers, employees, agents, and affiliates shall not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense (whether direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, or punitive) arising from or in connection with any person's use of, reliance on, or inability to use this document or any information contained herein, regardless of whether such liability arises in contract, tort (including negligence), strict liability, or any other legal theory, and regardless of whether BX-TRADE has been advised of the possibility of such loss or damage.
Regulatory Notices
Taiwan. BX-TRADE is not a licensed securities investment trust enterprise, securities investment consulting enterprise, or futures advisory enterprise under the Securities and Exchange Act, the Securities Investment Trust and Consulting Act, or the Futures Trading Act. This document does not constitute investment analysis, investment advice, or a recommendation within the meaning of regulations promulgated by the Financial Supervisory Commission. Readers in Taiwan should be aware that this document is provided strictly as commodity market research and should not be construed as advice to engage in any securities or futures transaction.
Mainland China. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in Mainland China where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation. BX-TRADE is not registered with or licensed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission or any other regulatory authority in Mainland China as a securities or futures advisory service provider. This document does not constitute investment advice, securities research, or futures advisory services within the meaning of the Securities Law, the Futures and Derivatives Law, or measures promulgated thereunder. Readers in Mainland China should not treat this document as a basis for any investment or trading decision.
General. Distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law. Persons who come into possession of this document should inform themselves of and observe all applicable legal and regulatory restrictions. BX-TRADE accepts no liability for any breach of such restrictions by any person.
Permitted Use
Forwarding. This publication may be forwarded to others only in its complete and unaltered form, including these notices.
No reproduction. No part of this publication, including its text, tables, figures and exhibits, may be reproduced, republished, excerpted, adapted, translated, distributed in part, or incorporated into any other document, presentation, database, product or service, by any means, without the prior written permission of Baixian.
No derivative modelling or data mining. This publication may not be used to reconstruct, reverse-engineer, replicate or calibrate the models, methods or parameters that produce it, or for text and data mining, or to train, develop or validate any model or automated system, without the prior written permission of Baixian.
Citation. Any reference to this publication must identify it as follows: BX-TRADE SAIRA WEEKLY, Issue No. 20, 2026
What Is Protected
Copyright. © 2026 Baixian. All rights reserved. The text, tables, exhibits, design and compilation of this publication are protected by the Copyright Act of Taiwan and the Berne Convention for the Protection of Literary and Artistic Works. The Baixian name and logo identify the source of this publication.
Proprietary methodology. This publication describes the forecasting framework at the level needed to read and check its results: the model families, the validation protocols and the measured record, including what the models did not achieve. It does not disclose the source code, parameter values, feature sets, calibration windows, threshold derivations, training selections or internal records that implement the framework. Those elements are kept confidential under access controls and are protected as trade secrets under the Trade Secrets Act of Taiwan and equivalent laws elsewhere. This publication grants no licence to them.
Enforcement. Baixian reserves all rights and remedies under the Copyright Act, the Trade Secrets Act, the Fair Trade Act and other applicable laws in Taiwan, and under the applicable laws of Mainland China and other jurisdictions.
Third-Party Data and Licences
Each third-party dataset used in this publication remains subject to its own terms. Those terms govern the third-party data only; they do not extend to, and grant no rights in, BX-TRADE's text, analysis, models, exhibits or compilation, which remain subject to the reservation of rights above. BX-TRADE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of data obtained from external sources, and the use of third-party data does not imply endorsement by the data providers of BX-TRADE's analysis, methodology or conclusions.
Global Fishing Watch (GFW). Vessel presence and fishing-effort data: Copyright 2026, Global Fishing Watch, Inc., https://globalfishingwatch.org/our-apis/. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC 4.0), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/. BX-TRADE has aggregated and transformed these data into hull-day counts, weekly fleet positions, effort radii, position-forecast errors and capture scores; the exhibits built on them are marked "Powered by Global Fishing Watch". GFW provides its data as is, without warranty, and does not endorse this analysis. The licence applies to GFW's data, which are available from GFW under its terms; it grants no rights in BX-TRADE's analysis, exhibits or compilation.
Use of GFW data. GFW data are used solely in preparing this research publication. They are not sold, licensed or supplied to any person as a product or service, and the underlying GFW data are not redistributed.
Other sources.
Catch, vessel and grade data: TSSFA (台灣區遠洋魷魚暨秋刀魚公會), weekly vessel reporting, 2019–2026. Exact weekly catch is printed for the latest two weeks only; earlier weeks appear as multi-week or season totals.
Historical catch series: TSSFA public annual statistics, ROC years 66–114 (1977–2025).
Pre-season survey: Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency (FRA), サンマ長期漁海況予報 (annual, late July), 2018–2026 editions. Facts are stated in our own words; no FRA text, table or chart is reproduced.
In-season outlook: Japan Fisheries Information Service Center (JAFIC), サンマ中短期漁況予報, 2026 editions, stated in our own words.
Quota and management measures: North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC), conservation and management measures, public meeting documents, cumulative-catch tracker and vessel registry; Ministry of Agriculture, Republic of China (Taiwan).
Ocean fields: Copernicus Marine Service (E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information); NOAA (OISST and wave fields, public domain).
Forecast sea temperatures in Exhibit E55 are the E.U. Copernicus Marine Service's own model forecast, shown as issued on its native grid without processing, with the issuer and issue time stated. They are not a BX-TRADE forecast, and BX-TRADE makes no representation as to their accuracy.
Coastline: Natural Earth (public domain).
Length–weight and age-at-length: Suyama et al. (2015); Huang (2007); Ginting & Huang (2023). Further literature is cited where it is used.
Contact
For questions regarding this document or permissions, please contact: Global Trade Business Group (BX-TRADE), Commodity Research & Strategy Division (國際貿易事業群 大宗商品研究與策略組 BX-TRADE-CRS) · Email: crs@baixiangroup.com · Tel: +886 7 536 8337
Baixian (2026). BX-TRADE SAIRA Weekly, Issue No. 20, week ending October 17, 2026.