Métodos de investigación por especie
Elija una pesquería para ver cómo se elaboran sus estimaciones, qué significan las cifras publicadas y cómo se contrasta la evidencia. Cada especie tiene su propio marco analítico.
Pota argentina
La pesquería de una sola generación, la ventana de captura que marca la biología y la evidencia en que se basan los escenarios de la campaña.
Paparda del Pacífico
Estimaciones de captura de la campaña, supuestos sobre el regreso de la flota, estimaciones del extremo inferior y techos de capacidad de pesca, con el historial de resultados de las referencias semanales.
Normas comunes de investigación
La cobertura de los datos, las revisiones fechadas y las condiciones de uso son comunes a todas las publicaciones. El detalle de los modelos figura en la página de cada especie.
Revisions with a dated record
Each edition retains its own date, information vintage and forecast record. Revision notes identify what changed, why, the measured comparison, whether it is adopted and its first effective issue. New observations, source corrections, model candidates, adopted methods and presentation repairs have different meanings. Prior reports and original calls are not silently rewritten.
Three lenses on the season
We examine catch relative to comparable historical season weeks, the reported size-grade mix, and fleet participation and catch per unit of effort. Their interpretation is specific to each fishery. Commercial grades describe the catch mix; in Pacific Saury they are not a direct age measurement. Catch-reporting vessels and vessels observed in the fishing area are also different measures.
Data sources and coverage
The Illex and Pacific Saury series describe Taiwan-origin fleet outcomes, not total removals by every flag-state fleet. Pacific Saury catch and grade reporting is supplied by TSSFA, while Global Fishing Watch observations provide a separate view of vessel activity. Annual catch statistics and summed weekly in-season reports can differ and are identified by source series.
We use attributed FRA and JAFIC survey and outlook material, published stock assessments, NOAA and E.U. Copernicus Marine Service ocean data, NOAA and ECMWF weather forecasts, RSMC Tokyo advisories and regional fisheries-management publications. Each source retains its geographical scope, observation time or forecast cycle and valid date. Taiwan allocation arithmetic is not relabelled as NPFC Convention Area uptake.
- Taiwan-origin jig-fleet catch and size-grade reporting
- Vessel activity and catch-per-unit-effort records
- Published stock-assessment and oceanographic literature
- Regional fisheries-management and regulatory findings (attributed)
- TSSFA Pacific Saury catch and commercial-grade reporting
- Global Fishing Watch vessel observations; coverage disclosed per issue
- FRA and JAFIC survey and outlook publications (attributed)
- NOAA, ECMWF and RSMC Tokyo weather products (attributed)
- NOAA and E.U. Copernicus Marine Service ocean products (attributed)
Uncertainty and use
Forecasts are model-derived estimates subject to revision, not guarantees. Illex scenario probabilities and the Pacific Saury quantile and physical-ceiling endpoints are reported under their own frameworks; they are not interchangeable probability statements. Public briefs are summaries, and the underlying models and full detail are provided only to intended recipients. Nothing we publish constitutes investment, trading or financial advice, or an offer or solicitation.