Методы исследований по видам
Выберите промысел, чтобы узнать, как строятся оценки, что означают публикуемые показатели и как проверяется доказательная база. Для каждого вида — своя аналитическая основа.
Аргентинский кальмар иллекс
Промысел одного поколения, биологически обусловленные сроки лова и данные, на которых основаны сценарии сезона.
Тихоокеанская сайра
Оценки сезонного вылова, допущения о возвращении флота, нижние оценки и потолок вылова, заданный возможностями флота, а также фактическая точность еженедельных ориентиров.
Общие стандарты исследований
Охват данных, пересмотры с указанием даты и условия использования едины для всех публикаций. Подробности моделей приведены на странице каждого вида.
Revisions with a dated record
Each edition retains its own date, information vintage and forecast record. Revision notes identify what changed, why, the measured comparison, whether it is adopted and its first effective issue. New observations, source corrections, model candidates, adopted methods and presentation repairs have different meanings. Prior reports and original calls are not silently rewritten.
Three lenses on the season
We examine catch relative to comparable historical season weeks, the reported size-grade mix, and fleet participation and catch per unit of effort. Their interpretation is specific to each fishery. Commercial grades describe the catch mix; in Pacific Saury they are not a direct age measurement. Catch-reporting vessels and vessels observed in the fishing area are also different measures.
Data sources and coverage
The Illex and Pacific Saury series describe Taiwan-origin fleet outcomes, not total removals by every flag-state fleet. Pacific Saury catch and grade reporting is supplied by TSSFA, while Global Fishing Watch observations provide a separate view of vessel activity. Annual catch statistics and summed weekly in-season reports can differ and are identified by source series.
We use attributed FRA and JAFIC survey and outlook material, published stock assessments, NOAA and E.U. Copernicus Marine Service ocean data, NOAA and ECMWF weather forecasts, RSMC Tokyo advisories and regional fisheries-management publications. Each source retains its geographical scope, observation time or forecast cycle and valid date. Taiwan allocation arithmetic is not relabelled as NPFC Convention Area uptake.
- Taiwan-origin jig-fleet catch and size-grade reporting
- Vessel activity and catch-per-unit-effort records
- Published stock-assessment and oceanographic literature
- Regional fisheries-management and regulatory findings (attributed)
- TSSFA Pacific Saury catch and commercial-grade reporting
- Global Fishing Watch vessel observations; coverage disclosed per issue
- FRA and JAFIC survey and outlook publications (attributed)
- NOAA, ECMWF and RSMC Tokyo weather products (attributed)
- NOAA and E.U. Copernicus Marine Service ocean products (attributed)
Uncertainty and use
Forecasts are model-derived estimates subject to revision, not guarantees. Illex scenario probabilities and the Pacific Saury quantile and physical-ceiling endpoints are reported under their own frameworks; they are not interchangeable probability statements. Public briefs are summaries, and the underlying models and full detail are provided only to intended recipients. Nothing we publish constitutes investment, trading or financial advice, or an offer or solicitation.