Catch drops 54%: Where are the saury?
October samples confirm saury west of Taiwan’s observed fleet grounds. The season base case falls 17.0% to 21,819.3 MT; commercial fish encounter forecasts at those grounds still await validation.
Taiwan-origin catch · 2026 season
WK19 · catch review October 4–10, 2026 · current-week references October 11–17 · prepared October 13
Fish and grounds outlook Pacific Saury methodologySeason outlook
Fishing through October 31 · end-of-October return assumed
- Low endModel’s lower estimate
- 17,087.0MT
- -14.9%vs WK18 estimate
- Previously 20,072.6 MT
- 20% below this level under the model; coverage for this return case is unestablished.
- Base caseOur principal season estimate
- 21,819.3MT
- -17.0%vs WK18 estimate
- Previously 26,277.4 MT
- Catch still needs to accelerate before the fleet’s assumed return.
- Upper limitPhysical capacity ceiling
- 36,644.7MT
- -20.9%vs WK18 estimate
- Previously 46,354.4 MT
- A capacity limit, with no probability assigned to this endpoint.
Exact figures are retained as produced by the sealed issue.
- Catch this week
- 567.1MT
- ↓ -54%vs WK18 catch
- Season catch reported
- 15,582.3MT
- 43.0%of the historical mean at WK19
- Catch rate required
- 2.27×
- the recent four-week catch per hull-day, to reach the base case
- Premium share
- 9.24%
- ↓ -0.03percentage points vs WK18
Different fishing-end assumption; separate from the base case.
This week’s catch references · October 11–17
Whole-week references; weekly forecast qualification remains unearned.
- B · Latest catch carried forward
- 567.1 MT
- New reference range 185.4–1,734.3 MT
- C · Season estimate split
- 2,048.0 MT
- Existing split band 494.1–6,916.1 MT
- New reference range 491.0–8,541.6 MT
New ranges: nominal 80% target, 0 resolved live calls. Actual weekly-tonne coverage is unestablished.
Fish evidence lies west of the dated fleet grounds
The October fish sample and Taiwan’s observed fleet grounds are separated in space and time. That gap shapes this week’s outlook: the model cannot yet confirm where fish will meet the fleet.
E62 Taiwan fleet access differs from Japanese samples
- Where fish are evidenced
- Japanese sampling record
October 4–5; establishes fish at the sampled place and time.
- Where the fleet was observed
- Offshore grounds farther east
October 4–8; October 9–10 positions remain missing.
- Fish overlap this week
- Unresolved
October 11–17; no validated Taiwan encounter probability or fish endpoint.
See forecast water movement at the dated grounds
This native research view starts at October 8 fleet positions and uses provider currents for conditional water displacement over October 13–17. Moving water does not establish fish movement or future fleet positions. Currents retain their October 10 source cycle.
E63 Water movement at dated Taiwan grounds
See how far the fish movement research gets
Two conditional research arms compare water alone with added westward swimming. They start from July fish evidence at hypothetical dates. Grey crosses mark lost source support. The tested routes form no complete endpoints and cannot locate October fish.
E64 Fish-route coverage needs repair
See what changed in the fish detection model
The new comparison keeps research gear and year differences visible and compares thermal models with an added-current arm. Bars show probability error, where lower is better; the left panel compares model means with observed detection fractions by cruise. This is retrospective research with exposed outcomes, rather than a Taiwan commercial encounter or fish-location forecast.
E65 WK19: Survey encounters differ by gear and year
Research supplements E62–E65 explain the work and its validation limits, separately from the sealed issue’s 31 exhibits. These research methods are not adopted in the issued catch estimates and do not establish validated Taiwan encounter probabilities or fish locations.
This week’s model updates
What changed, why it matters, and how it affects this issue’s estimates.
More fish samples, with gear differences kept separate
The research comparison adds dated Japanese survey records and distinguishes sampling gear and year. It compares temperature models with a model that also uses currents.
Why it mattersDifferent nets catch fish differently. Keeping those differences visible helps avoid treating survey catches as commercial fishing outcomes.
Research: the retrospective comparison passes; validation for Taiwan’s fleet remains incomplete.
Uncertainty shown around weekly catch references
New B and C reference ranges first appear in WK19, using historical catch-rate errors to describe uncertainty around the references.
Why it mattersReaders can assess a range alongside each reference value. The points and the existing season-split band are unchanged.
In this issue: reference ranges with an 80% design target; how often they contain actual weekly catch remains unvalidated.
A separate test of how the weekly models transition
The registered sensitivity tests a gradual transition from carrying recent catch forward to the model for later weeks. Its season result is 22,267.1 MT, or +2.05% against the primary estimate.
Why it mattersThis shows how a design choice could affect the result. It is presented for a separate decision and does not replace the primary estimate.
Sensitivity only: not adopted or applied automatically.
Supporting data checks
Original surface and near-100 m temperature inputs for October 14–17 are now verified, and existing-model calculations at the observed October 8 fleet positions reproduce independently. Temperature uses the October 13 cycle; currents retain the October 10 cycle. This closes a data-source gap, without a new fit or validated fish-location forecast.
Effect on this issue’s figures
The season revision reflects updated catch, reporting vessels and time remaining. The fish and current research has not changed the issued weekly or cumulative catch estimates.
- Reported catch
- October 4–10
Season week 19; vessel positions lack October 9–10.
- Current-week references
- October 11–17
Season week 20 is underway; values describe the whole week.
- Provider forecast cycle
- October 12 00 UTC
Waves cited as issued; the separate temperature map is valid October 18.
Dated fish evidence and the observed fleet grounds remain separated.
Movement research has not formed complete endpoints that locate this week’s fish.
Catch references and season estimates follow; new fish and current numerical layers remain unadopted.
Fish evidence and fleet grounds
Fish evidence comes first. The latest species-confirmed collection reviewed in the pickup work is a Japanese sampling record dated October 4–5. It establishes fish at that sampled place and time. Its distance, age and different sampling setting prevent it from establishing today’s fish presence at Taiwan fleet grounds.
The latest fish-model changes and their limits are summarised in “This week’s model updates.” No validated forecast yet identifies where Taiwan’s fleet will encounter saury this week.
For fleet context, October 4–8 positions are available and October 9–10 are missing. The complete weekly movement series ends at week 18; the separate partial week-19 marker is dated. A position is evidence of a vessel being observed, rather than species-confirmed fishing success. See E04 and E04b.
E51 ranks areas using the information available to the issue. It has not established an improvement over the preceding footprint. Read higher-ranked cells as reference areas for later checking; the ranks supply no fish presence percentage or catch estimate.
Ocean background: E52 places 51% of observed hull-days in the 15.2–20.6 °C band, while E53 shows water at fleet cells 2.8 °C above normal. These observations describe the environment around the dated fleet footprint. They do not establish why catch fell.
The movement research traces water at earlier fleet positions and tests fish-initialized scenarios. Some fish scenarios lose the source coverage needed to finish. Missing route support remains unknown. The work has not supplied a validated fish arrival probability or a current adjustment to the weekly or season catch figures.
E04b 6 weeks of the fleet: 246 nm south-east from week 13 to week 18; 97% of hull-days in the band.
Complete weekly movement ends at WK18. Partial WK19 positions cover October 4–8, with October 9–10 missing. The ranking is not a fish encounter probability.
E52 51% of our hull-days sat in the 15.2–20.6 °C band; its cold edge moved 1.0° south at 169°E.
Water, sampled fish and fleet positions retain separate dates. E54 ends September 26; E55 is the provider temperature forecast valid October 18.
Weather and the week ahead
The catch outlook covers October 11–17, season week 20, already underway when this issue was prepared. The reference values describe the whole week. They are not a newly calculated forecast for only the days remaining after October 13.
Section B carries the latest catch forward as a yardstick. Section C allocates the season estimate across remaining weeks. Both retain their measured errors and baseline comparisons; neither has earned the qualification for a weekly point forecast.
Section B’s week-20 reference is 567.1 MT. Section C’s point is 2,048.0 MT, with its existing split band of 494.1–6,916.1 MT. Section B’s one-week log error is 0.9426 over 14 calls, versus baseline 0.9716; C’s is 0.9218 over 29, versus the same-case baseline 1.1476.
The new B reference range is 185.4–1,734.3 MT; C’s is 491.0–8,541.6 MT. The nominal target is 80%, with 0 resolved live calls. Coverage in weekly tonnes is unestablished.
The new reference ranges first appear in WK19. Their nominal target is 80%, based on historical catch-rate errors scaled to tonnes. Coverage of actual weekly tonnes has not been established, and no eligible live call has yet resolved. These ranges are separate from the existing season-split band.
For October 4–10, E33 records 3.8 equivalent days below the 4.0 m working line across the five days with vessel positions. Each day is weighted by the share of observed hulls below that line. October 9–10 have no position coverage. This measures wave exposure under the working assumption; it does not count confirmed successful fishing days.
NOAA and ECMWF’s October 12 00 UTC forecasts show seven-day maximum significant wave heights of 5.86 m and 5.91 m respectively at their own nearest grid points. E33 retains each agency’s dates and times. Their weather window differs from the catch-reference week. E55 separately shows Copernicus Marine Service’s temperature forecast valid October 18; it does not extend our catch-reference horizon.
Watch whether catch per vessel-day strengthens, whether complete-day fleet positions change and whether fresh, dated fish evidence supports the grounds. A single low catch, warmer water or incomplete AIS day cannot settle the cause.
Cyclone advisories as issued
RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center, Japan Meteorological Agency · RSMC Tokyo tropical cyclone advisory WTPQ51 RJTD 120600
Captured: 2026-10-12T08:46:21.616168+00:00
RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center, Japan Meteorological AgencyWTPQ51 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2629 KOGUMA (2629)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 29.9N 147.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 32.9N 149.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 130600UTC 35.5N 153.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 140600UTC 40.7N 160.4E 55NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =Central Weather Administration · CWA 颱風消息 民國115年10月12日14時
Captured: 2026-10-12T08:46:21.616168+00:00
Central Weather Administration中度颱風小熊編號第 28 號國際命名 KOGUMA 12日14時的中心位置在北緯 29.9 度，東經 147.8 度，以每小時29公里速度，向北北東進行。中心氣壓955百帕，近中心最大風速每秒38公尺，瞬間最大陣風每秒 48 公尺，七級風平均暴風半徑 180 公里(西北側 170 公里、東北側 190 公里、西南側 180 公里、東南側 190 公里)，十級風平均暴風半徑 80 公里(西北側 80 公里、東北側 80 公里、西南側 80 公里、東南側 80 公里)。E45 Week 20: 2,048 MT at the band's point, 494 to 6,916 MT across it. Not a forecast.
Read the section-C point and its existing split band separately from the new B/C reference ranges. The reference path is tied to the season estimate and supplies a yardstick for later reports.
E33 3.8 of 5 days observed were fishable at the fleet. Forecast maxima, 7 days: NOAA 5.86 m, ECMWF 5.91 m.
E33 uses the October 12 00 UTC cycles and each issuer’s seven-day window. E55 is valid October 18. Keep both separate from the October 11–17 catch-reference week.
What changed this week
The base case has moved from 26,277.4 MT to 21,819.3 MT, a reduction of 4,458.1 MT. The generated comparison records a 17.0% decline. E41 records a 54% fall in weekly catch and identifies catch per vessel-day as the main accounting contribution.
There are 69 reporting vessels, compared with 77 in WK18. The weekly reporting count cannot identify which vessels returned, stopped reporting or remained on the grounds. AIS presence and the reporting count measure different things.
The smaller capacity ceiling also reflects fewer calendar days left before October 31. The catch update, reporting count and shrinking time window help explain the change; the full revision should not be attributed to a new forecasting algorithm.
E41 Catch fell 54% in week 19. Catch per hull-day did the moving.
This exhibit separates the arithmetic of the catch change. It does not identify whether fish availability, weather or fishing decisions caused the change. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.
The forecast record and its limits
The one-week reference record contains 14 calls with log RMSE 0.9426, against a baseline of 0.9716. A slightly lower error is not sufficient: the required improvement beyond its uncertainty and the separate usable-error bar of 0.40 still apply. The issue retains version v0.2-ungated.
How to read the season band. Its low end is a model quantile; its top is fleet capacity to October 31. The base case cannot exceed its own capacity ceiling, so misses are one-sided. The historical band with an allocation ceiling missed low four times and high zero times across 29 anchors; the capacity-ceiling case has no measured coverage record.
Width and the selection rule. This week’s band is 89.6% of its point. The historical allocation-ceiling band had a mean width of 91.5% of point, versus 60.9% for the earlier alternative. The registered treatment was selected on coverage before width; the width criterion did not decide it.
Why the width changes. It is the ceiling minus the low end. The current difference is 19,557.7 MT and changes with landed catch, reporting vessels and days remaining. Collapse occurs when the median rises beyond the binding ceiling and the bounds meet. This issue’s median is 21,176.9 MT, below its 36,644.7 MT ceiling; no floor is applied to the band width.
A season estimate does not establish next-week accuracy or fish-map skill. The detailed research report carries the comparison populations, assumptions and unsuccessful candidates. The capability and refusal records remain supporting evidence in E36 and E43.
E19p 14 calls: season RMSE 0.943 log. Condition 1 is to beat the baseline, 0.972; it is below it.
Read the error, baseline and sample together. Retrospective results and original calls made before outcomes are separate evidence.
The reported catch mix
The season-to-date premium share is 9.24%, compared with 9.27% in WK18. The premium tier is No.2 and larger, at least 100 g per fish. Read the season share alongside the weekly mix, which can move sharply when the week’s catch is small.
Commercial grades describe the fish in the reported catch. They do not directly measure the abundance or age composition of fish still at sea. The registered premium-share call remains open until season end.
E03 The premium tier is 9.24% of the season so far. Weekly shares swing; the season figure counts.
Use the cumulative premium share for the season assessment. A weekly size shift needs to be checked against catch volume and sampling coverage.
The position at week 19
TSSFA (台灣區遠洋魷魚暨秋刀魚公會) reports 567.1 MT for October 4–10, compared with 1,226.9 MT for the preceding week as the WK18 issue carried it. Season catch has reached 15,582.3 MT. These figures concern the Taiwan-origin reporting fleet.
We assume the fleet begins returning by the end of October. In this base case, October 25–31 is the last fishing week and no catch is counted after October 31. The season estimate is 21,819.3 MT. The model’s own ending dates give a separate sensitivity of 31,736.1 MT; that case does not replace our return assumption.
The low end is 17,087.0 MT. The model assigns a 20% chance of finishing below it, but that probability has not been validated for the end-of-October case. The upper end, 36,644.7 MT, is the calculated fleet capacity under this assumption. It is a physical limit rather than a probability bound.
The remaining path still requires catch per vessel-day to run at 2.27 times the recent four-week rate. Two of six historical seasons achieved that after week 19. The practical question is whether catch per vessel-day strengthens while fishing time remains. See E40 for this consistency check.
E40 The point asks catch per hull-day to run at x2.27 this month's; 2 of 6 past seasons did after week 19.
Compare the catch per vessel-day required by the season estimate with the same stage of historical seasons. The estimate still depends on the return assumption.
Supporting evidence
Exact weekly catch appears only for WK19 and WK18. Earlier history stays in the approved native charts and permitted aggregates.
E012026 is running at 43.0% of the panel mean. The fan says it does not catch up.
E01 2026 is running at 43.0% of the panel mean. The fan says it does not catch up.
E41Catch fell 54% in week 19. Catch per hull-day did the moving.
E41 Catch fell 54% in week 19. Catch per hull-day did the moving.
This exhibit separates the arithmetic of the catch change. It does not identify whether fish availability, weather or fishing decisions caused the change. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.
E40The point asks catch per hull-day to run at x2.27 this month's; 2 of 6 past seasons did after week 19.
E40 The point asks catch per hull-day to run at x2.27 this month's; 2 of 6 past seasons did after week 19.
Compare the catch per vessel-day required by the season estimate with the same stage of historical seasons. The estimate still depends on the return assumption.
E42Week 19: 77 roster hulls were in the box in 2026. In 2019–2023 the same week held 56 to 74.
E42 Week 19: 77 roster hulls were in the box in 2026. In 2019–2023 the same week held 56 to 74.
This exhibit separates the arithmetic of the catch change. It does not identify whether fish availability, weather or fishing decisions caused the change. Powered by Global Fishing Watch.
E15Catch since 2014: down by roughly three quarters. Fleet down by roughly a sixth: 91 vessels to 75.
E15 Catch since 2014: down by roughly three quarters. Fleet down by roughly a sixth: 91 vessels to 75.
E03The premium tier is 9.24% of the season so far. Weekly shares swing; the season figure counts.
E03 The premium tier is 9.24% of the season so far. Weekly shares swing; the season figure counts.
Use the cumulative premium share for the season assessment. A weekly size shift needs to be checked against catch volume and sampling coverage.
E27The commercial convention puts age-1 at No.2 · 2號. FRA's 2026 L50: No.4 · 4號, two grades down.
E27 The commercial convention puts age-1 at No.2 · 2號. FRA's 2026 L50: No.4 · 4號, two grades down.
E04The fleet has moved east across 18 weeks of 2026; median half-effort radius 34 nm.
E04 The fleet has moved east across 18 weeks of 2026; median half-effort radius 34 nm.
E04b6 weeks of the fleet: 246 nm south-east from week 13 to week 18; 97% of hull-days in the band.
E04b 6 weeks of the fleet: 246 nm south-east from week 13 to week 18; 97% of hull-days in the band.
Complete weekly movement ends at WK18. Partial WK19 positions cover October 4–8, with October 9–10 missing. The ranking is not a fish encounter probability.
E16Week 20: within 156 nm of week 18 half the time, 437 nm 95% of the time. No direction forecast.
E16 Week 20: within 156 nm of week 18 half the time, 437 nm 95% of the time. No direction forecast.
E19Persistence's 80% ring for week 18: 298 nm. The fleet went 109 nm, inside its 50% ring.
E19 Persistence's 80% ring for week 18: 298 nm. The fleet went 109 nm, inside its 50% ring.
E38Most weeks, the fleet moves further than it spreads. Median move 93 nm; median half-effort radius 25 nm.
E38 Most weeks, the fleet moves further than it spreads. Median move 93 nm; median half-effort radius 25 nm.
E39"The fleet is where it was": off by 183 nm a week ahead, the baseline. No better one is established.
E39 "The fleet is where it was": off by 183 nm a week ahead, the baseline. No better one is established.
E5251% of our hull-days sat in the 15.2–20.6 °C band; its cold edge moved 1.0° south at 169°E.
E52 51% of our hull-days sat in the 15.2–20.6 °C band; its cold edge moved 1.0° south at 169°E.
Water, sampled fish and fleet positions retain separate dates. E54 ends September 26; E55 is the provider temperature forecast valid October 18.
E53The water at our cells was 2.8 °C warmer than normal this week.
E53 The water at our cells was 2.8 °C warmer than normal this week.
Water, sampled fish and fleet positions retain separate dates. E54 ends September 26; E55 is the provider temperature forecast valid October 18.
E05Our fleet sat 4.1° south of the band's cold edge; the 100 m 5 °C isotherm lay 1.2° north of its mean.
E05 Our fleet sat 4.1° south of the band's cold edge; the 100 m 5 °C isotherm lay 1.2° north of its mean.
Water, sampled fish and fleet positions retain separate dates. E54 ends September 26; E55 is the provider temperature forecast valid October 18.
E54Other fleets entered cells near ours 1 time in three nights to 09-26.
E54 Other fleets entered cells near ours 1 time in three nights to 09-26.
Water, sampled fish and fleet positions retain separate dates. E54 ends September 26; E55 is the provider temperature forecast valid October 18.
E55Copernicus Marine Service's forecast of sea temperature for 18 October 2026.
E55 Copernicus Marine Service's forecast of sea temperature for 18 October 2026.
Water, sampled fish and fleet positions retain separate dates. E54 ends September 26; E55 is the provider temperature forecast valid October 18.
E33 uses the October 12 00 UTC cycles and each issuer’s seven-day window. E55 is valid October 18. Keep both separate from the October 11–17 catch-reference week.
E51The reference has not beaten last week's footprint on the information an issue actually has.
E51 The reference has not beaten last week's footprint on the information an issue actually has.
Complete weekly movement ends at WK18. Partial WK19 positions cover October 4–8, with October 9–10 missing. The ranking is not a fish encounter probability.
E50Full-week upper bound: HGB 38.8% vs 34.4%, 3 of 3. At issue time: HGB-L 29.8% vs 27.9%, 1 of 3.
E50 Full-week upper bound: HGB 38.8% vs 34.4%, 3 of 3. At issue time: HGB-L 29.8% vs 27.9%, 1 of 3.
Read the error, baseline and sample together. Retrospective results and original calls made before outcomes are separate evidence.
E06The prior and the weekly model are 16.8% apart. That is a gap between two numbers, not an error bar.
E06 The prior and the weekly model are 16.8% apart. That is a gap between two numbers, not an error bar.
Compare the catch per vessel-day required by the season estimate with the same stage of historical seasons. The estimate still depends on the return assumption.
E242% of the pre-ceiling posterior sits above the fleet's capacity to October's end.
E24 2% of the pre-ceiling posterior sits above the fleet's capacity to October's end.
E333.8 of 5 days observed were fishable at the fleet. Forecast maxima, 7 days: NOAA 5.86 m, ECMWF 5.91 m.
E33 3.8 of 5 days observed were fishable at the fleet. Forecast maxima, 7 days: NOAA 5.86 m, ECMWF 5.91 m.
E33 uses the October 12 00 UTC cycles and each issuer’s seven-day window. E55 is valid October 18. Keep both separate from the October 11–17 catch-reference week.
E45Week 20: 2,048 MT at the band's point, 494 to 6,916 MT across it. Not a forecast.
E45 Week 20: 2,048 MT at the band's point, 494 to 6,916 MT across it. Not a forecast.
Read the section-C point and its existing split band separately from the new B/C reference ranges. The reference path is tied to the season estimate and supplies a yardstick for later reports.
E19p14 calls: season RMSE 0.943 log. Condition 1 is to beat the baseline, 0.972; it is below it.
E19p 14 calls: season RMSE 0.943 log. Condition 1 is to beat the baseline, 0.972; it is below it.
Read the error, baseline and sample together. Retrospective results and original calls made before outcomes are separate evidence.
E4934% of weeks carry 89% of the error. Without them, last week's rate is off by 0.399 log.
E49 34% of weeks carry 89% of the error. Without them, last week's rate is off by 0.399 log.
Read the error, baseline and sample together. Retrospective results and original calls made before outcomes are separate evidence.
E08The allocation does not clip the published interval: the bull path ends at 36,645 MT of 59,148.
E08 The allocation does not clip the published interval: the bull path ends at 36,645 MT of 59,148.
E354 calls made. 1 resolved. Here is every one.
E35 4 calls made. 1 resolved. Here is every one.
E3647 attempted, 6 earned; 0 of 2 version gates met. Each row sits under the gate it serves.
E36 47 attempted, 6 earned; 0 of 2 version gates met. Each row sits under the gate it serves.
Read the error, baseline and sample together. Retrospective results and original calls made before outcomes are separate evidence.
E4336 registered tests. 2 passed. 5 of 31 refusals have a registered next route.
E43 36 registered tests. 2 passed. 5 of 31 refusals have a registered next route.
Read the error, baseline and sample together. Retrospective results and original calls made before outcomes are separate evidence.
E26The band narrows because less season remains — and ends above the likelihood floor, 0.0711.
E26 The band narrows because less season remains — and ends above the likelihood floor, 0.0711.
Sources and coverage
Catch and commercial grades: TSSFA weekly vessel reporting. The issue distinguishes a corrected source figure from a new week of catch; all final values follow the approved issue vintage.
Fleet observations: GFW. Complete observation days, the capture date and the serving delay are stated beside the relevant exhibits. Vessel presence describes reported activity and does not measure fish abundance.
Ocean conditions: NOAA and the E.U. Copernicus Marine Service. Forecast sea temperatures remain the provider’s forecast as issued, with their own cycle and valid date.
Sea state: NOAA/NCEP GFS-Wave and ECMWF open-data forecasts as issued; cyclone advisories from RSMC Tokyo and Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration. The issue cites the October 12 00 UTC cycle on both wave sources. No substitute cycle or derived forecast of fishable days is presented.
Survey and published outlook context: FRA and JAFIC. Their findings concern the surveys, fleets and grounds they describe; they are not a direct forecast of Taiwan-origin catch.
Management context: NPFC publications and Taiwan’s competent authority. Season catch and Convention Area uptake are kept distinct where their geographic bases differ.
ECMWF attribution as supplied with the data
ECMWF: © 2026 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. This data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This output is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Not modified: each value is the one ECMWF issued at its native grid point nearest the fleet, at ECMWF's own time steps. ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use.
Notices and terms of use
The English notices govern. The Chinese text is the approved summary.
Important Notices, Licensing & Terms of Use
This publication is prepared by Global Trade Business Group (BX-TRADE) Commodity Research & Strategy, part of Baixian (百鮮). It is issued for general distribution and is not offered for sale or by subscription. Its distribution grants no licence to, and discloses none of, the proprietary models, methods, code, parameters, data and records that produce it.
Important Disclosures
Nature of this document. This report is a commodity research publication. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, an offer, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any commodity, financial instrument, or derivative position. This document is not a securities research report within the meaning of applicable securities regulations in any jurisdiction.
No reliance. The information, opinions, forecasts, and reference figures contained in this document are based on historical data spanning the 2019–2025 observation period (seven complete Pacific saury TW-origin seasons) and proprietary statistical models. While BX-TRADE has exercised reasonable care in preparing this document, it makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of any information herein. Readers should not rely on this document as the sole basis for any commercial or investment decision and should conduct their own independent analysis and due diligence. BX-TRADE accepts no obligation to update, revise, or correct this document following its publication.
Forward-looking statements. This document contains forward-looking statements, including catch projections, reference figures, probability estimates, and season-level assessments. These statements are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of BX-TRADE. Actual results may differ materially from any projections or estimates contained herein due to, among other factors, changes in oceanographic conditions, fleet behavior, regulatory interventions, weather events, market conditions, and biological variability. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this document. Past performance of the fishery, individual seasons, or model forecasts is not a reliable indicator of future outcomes.
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Permitted Use
Forwarding. This publication may be forwarded to others only in its complete and unaltered form, including these notices.
No reproduction. No part of this publication, including its text, tables, figures and exhibits, may be reproduced, republished, excerpted, adapted, translated, distributed in part, or incorporated into any other document, presentation, database, product or service, by any means, without the prior written permission of Baixian.
No derivative modelling or data mining. This publication may not be used to reconstruct, reverse-engineer, replicate or calibrate the models, methods or parameters that produce it, or for text and data mining, or to train, develop or validate any model or automated system, without the prior written permission of Baixian.
Citation. Any reference to this publication must identify it as follows: Baixian (2026). BX-TRADE Saury Weekly, Issue No. 19, week ending October 10, 2026.
What Is Protected
Copyright. © 2026 Baixian. All rights reserved. The text, tables, exhibits, design and compilation of this publication are protected by the Copyright Act of Taiwan and the Berne Convention for the Protection of Literary and Artistic Works. The Baixian name and logo identify the source of this publication.
Proprietary methodology. This publication describes the forecasting framework at the level needed to read and check its results: the model families, the validation protocols and the measured record, including what the models did not achieve. It does not disclose the source code, parameter values, feature sets, calibration windows, threshold derivations, training selections or internal records that implement the framework. Those elements are kept confidential under access controls and are protected as trade secrets under the Trade Secrets Act of Taiwan and equivalent laws elsewhere. This publication grants no licence to them.
Enforcement. Baixian reserves all rights and remedies under the Copyright Act, the Trade Secrets Act, the Fair Trade Act and other applicable laws in Taiwan, and under the applicable laws of Mainland China and other jurisdictions.
Third-Party Data and Licences
Each third-party dataset used in this publication remains subject to its own terms. Those terms govern the third-party data only; they do not extend to, and grant no rights in, BX-TRADE's text, analysis, models, exhibits or compilation, which remain subject to the reservation of rights above. BX-TRADE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of data obtained from external sources, and the use of third-party data does not imply endorsement by the data providers of BX-TRADE's analysis, methodology or conclusions.
Global Fishing Watch (GFW). Vessel presence and fishing-effort data: Copyright 2026, Global Fishing Watch, Inc., https://globalfishingwatch.org/our-apis/. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC 4.0), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/. BX-TRADE has aggregated and transformed these data into hull-day counts, weekly fleet positions, effort radii, position-forecast errors and capture scores; the exhibits built on them are marked "Powered by Global Fishing Watch". GFW provides its data as is, without warranty, and does not endorse this analysis. The licence applies to GFW's data, which are available from GFW under its terms; it grants no rights in BX-TRADE's analysis, exhibits or compilation.
Use of GFW data. GFW data are used solely in preparing this research publication. They are not sold, licensed or supplied to any person as a product or service, and the underlying GFW data are not redistributed.
Other sources.
Catch, vessel and grade data: TSSFA (台灣區遠洋魷魚暨秋刀魚公會), weekly vessel reporting, 2019–2026. Exact weekly catch is printed for the latest two weeks only; earlier weeks appear as multi-week or season totals.
Historical catch series: TSSFA public annual statistics, ROC years 66–114 (1977–2025).
Pre-season survey: Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency (FRA), サンマ長期漁海況予報 (annual, late July), 2018–2026 editions. Facts are stated in our own words; no FRA text, table or chart is reproduced.
In-season outlook: Japan Fisheries Information Service Center (JAFIC), サンマ中短期漁況予報, 2026 editions, stated in our own words.
Quota and management measures: North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC), conservation and management measures, public meeting documents, cumulative-catch tracker and vessel registry; Ministry of Agriculture, Republic of China (Taiwan).
Ocean fields: Copernicus Marine Service (E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information); NOAA (OISST and wave fields, public domain).
Forecast sea temperatures in Exhibit E55 are the E.U. Copernicus Marine Service's own model forecast, shown as issued on its native grid without processing, with the issuer and issue time stated. They are not a BX-TRADE forecast, and BX-TRADE makes no representation as to their accuracy.
Coastline: Natural Earth (public domain).
Length–weight and age-at-length: Suyama et al. (2015); Huang (2007); Ginting & Huang (2023). Further literature is cited where it is used.
Contact
For questions regarding this document or permissions, please contact: Global Trade Business Group (BX-TRADE), Commodity Research & Strategy Division (國際貿易事業群 大宗商品研究與策略分析組 BX-TRADE-CRS) · Email: crs@baixiangroup.com · Tel: +886 7 536 8337
Baixian (2026). BX-TRADE Saury Weekly, Issue No. 19, week ending October 10, 2026.