Illex research
Published weekly assessments and season forecasts for Illex argentinus. Compare catch developments, estimate revisions and the assumptions recorded in each issue.
Base case advances to 40,187 MT on a third consecutive upward revision, even as accelerating maturation tightens the residual harvest window
Cumulative catch reaches 39,108 MT with the WK17 print at 2,463 MT — a third consecutive week above the persistent-tail threshold. The ensemble base case is revised up to 40,187 MT; expected value 40,423 MT, +5.4% versus WK16.
Read the assessment →Choose your reading path
Catch and season outlook
Compare reported catch, season scenarios and the revisions recorded in each issue.
What to check
Catch figures and season estimates apply to the fleet and reporting population defined in each report. They do not represent the global catch of Illex argentinus.
Size mix and fleet activity
Read size composition, active vessels and CPUE alongside the weekly catch assessment.
What to check
Read size composition, active vessels and CPUE alongside the reporting period and the interpretation in each issue. Different indicators can point in different directions.
Methods and model updates
Review the forecasting framework, scenario assumptions and validation limits.
What to check
Use the Illex methodology alongside the issue-specific assumptions, scenarios and limitations. Published scenarios do not guarantee a particular catch outcome.
Report archive
4 reports
Base case advances to 40,187 MT on a third consecutive upward revision, even as accelerating maturation tightens the residual harvest window
Cumulative catch reaches 39,108 MT with the WK17 print at 2,463 MT — a third consecutive week above the persistent-tail threshold. The ensemble base case is revised up to 40,187 MT; expected value 40,423 MT, +5.4% versus WK16.
Illex squidPersistent-tail regime extends; second upward revision of the season
Cumulative catch reaches 36,628 MT on a +56.6% weekly rebound to 3,413 MT — the persistent-tail regime confirmed as multi-week. The ensemble base case is revised up to 38,058 MT, the season's second upward revision.
Illex squidSpawning aggregation released; all monitoring signals flip bearish
Cumulative catch at 33,208 MT; the weekly print falls to 2,174 MT, a 50.0% contraction from WK14. The four-model ensemble converges to a 35,261 MT base case — the tightest agreement of the season.
Illex squid2026 Illex Season: Catch Trajectory & Forecast Analysis
The WK14 spawning aggregation — 4,343 MT, a 51.3% surge over WK13 without precedent in the five-season panel — resets the season. The four-model BMA ensemble lifts the full-season base case 18.0% to 35,309 MT (Bull 37,383, 35%; Bear 32,541, 10%).
Illex squidReading the outlook
Which catches do the estimates cover?
Catch figures and season estimates apply to the fleet and reporting population defined in each report. They do not represent the global catch of Illex argentinus.
How should I compare earlier estimates?
Each report preserves its original assessment and publication date. A season forecast describes the outlook at that time; an older estimate is not a newly updated forecast.
Where are the methods and limitations explained?
Use the Illex methodology alongside the issue-specific assumptions, scenarios and limitations. Published scenarios do not guarantee a particular catch outcome.
About this research
Published by BX-TRADE Commodity Research & Strategy, part of Baixian’s global trading business. This is company-produced commodity research; assumptions, sources and limitations accompany the published reports.
Reference organizations
Public references on squid biology, regional fisheries and species names. Each report defines its own fleet coverage, catch data and reporting period.