Commodity research & forecasts
Follow published catch assessments, compare season outlooks and review the evidence behind each report.
Research by species
Illex squid
Latest publication ·
Base case advances to 40,187 MT on a third consecutive upward revision, even as accelerating maturation tightens the residual harvest window
Cumulative catch reaches 39,108 MT with the WK17 print at 2,463 MT — a third consecutive week above the persistent-tail threshold. The ensemble base case is revised up to 40,187 MT; expected value 40,423 MT, +5.4% versus WK16.
Explore research →Pacific saury
Latest publication ·
Catch rebounds, fish signals in focus
A five-day research outlook for October 20–24 pairs modeled conditions with the Taiwan fleet’s last observed cells. Encounter probabilities around the fleet remain unvalidated.
Explore research →Report archive
8 reports
Catch rebounds, fish signals in focus
A five-day research outlook for October 20–24 pairs modeled conditions with the Taiwan fleet’s last observed cells. Encounter probabilities around the fleet remain unvalidated.
Pacific sauryCatch drops 54%: Where are the saury?
October samples confirm saury west of Taiwan’s observed fleet grounds. The season base case falls 17.0% to 21,819.3 MT; commercial fish encounter forecasts at those grounds still await validation.
Pacific saury2026 Pacific Saury Catch Trajectory and Season Outlook
How the Taiwan-origin season has developed, what the remaining path requires, and the assumptions and measured evidence behind the season outlook.
Pacific sauryWeekly catch rebounds as the season outlook softens
This week’s catch, the season outlook and the conditions to watch before the fleet’s assumed end-of-October return.
Pacific sauryBase case advances to 40,187 MT on a third consecutive upward revision, even as accelerating maturation tightens the residual harvest window
Cumulative catch reaches 39,108 MT with the WK17 print at 2,463 MT — a third consecutive week above the persistent-tail threshold. The ensemble base case is revised up to 40,187 MT; expected value 40,423 MT, +5.4% versus WK16.
Illex squidPersistent-tail regime extends; second upward revision of the season
Cumulative catch reaches 36,628 MT on a +56.6% weekly rebound to 3,413 MT — the persistent-tail regime confirmed as multi-week. The ensemble base case is revised up to 38,058 MT, the season's second upward revision.
Illex squidSpawning aggregation released; all monitoring signals flip bearish
Cumulative catch at 33,208 MT; the weekly print falls to 2,174 MT, a 50.0% contraction from WK14. The four-model ensemble converges to a 35,261 MT base case — the tightest agreement of the season.
Illex squid2026 Illex Season: Catch Trajectory & Forecast Analysis
The WK14 spawning aggregation — 4,343 MT, a 51.3% surge over WK13 without precedent in the five-season panel — resets the season. The four-model BMA ensemble lifts the full-season base case 18.0% to 35,309 MT (Bull 37,383, 35%; Bear 32,541, 10%).
Illex squidMethodology
Understand the assumptions, reporting coverage and validation limits behind the published analysis.