漁獲回升，聚焦魚訊展望

Important Notices, Licensing & Terms of Use · 重要聲明、授權與使用條款

This publication is prepared by Global Trade Business Group (BX-TRADE) Commodity Research & Strategy, part of Baixian (百鮮). It is issued for general distribution and is not offered for sale or by subscription. Its distribution grants no licence to, and discloses none of, the proprietary models, methods, code, parameters, data and records that produce it.

Important Disclosures

Nature of this document. This report is a commodity research publication. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, an offer, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any commodity, financial instrument, or derivative position. This document is not a securities research report within the meaning of applicable securities regulations in any jurisdiction.

No reliance. The information, opinions, forecasts, and reference figures contained in this document are based on historical data spanning the 2019–2025 observation period (seven complete Pacific saury TW-origin seasons) and proprietary statistical models. While BX-TRADE has exercised reasonable care in preparing this document, it makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of any information herein. Readers should not rely on this document as the sole basis for any commercial or investment decision and should conduct their own independent analysis and due diligence. BX-TRADE accepts no obligation to update, revise, or correct this document following its publication.

Forward-looking statements. This document contains forward-looking statements, including catch projections, reference figures, probability estimates, and season-level assessments. These statements are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of BX-TRADE. Actual results may differ materially from any projections or estimates contained herein due to, among other factors, changes in oceanographic conditions, fleet behavior, regulatory interventions, weather events, market conditions, and biological variability. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this document. Past performance of the fishery, individual seasons, or model forecasts is not a reliable indicator of future outcomes.

Limitation of liability. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, BX-TRADE, Baixian, and their respective directors, officers, employees, agents, and affiliates shall not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense (whether direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, or punitive) arising from or in connection with any person's use of, reliance on, or inability to use this document or any information contained herein, regardless of whether such liability arises in contract, tort (including negligence), strict liability, or any other legal theory, and regardless of whether BX-TRADE has been advised of the possibility of such loss or damage.

Regulatory Notices

Taiwan. BX-TRADE is not a licensed securities investment trust enterprise, securities investment consulting enterprise, or futures advisory enterprise under the Securities and Exchange Act, the Securities Investment Trust and Consulting Act, or the Futures Trading Act. This document does not constitute investment analysis, investment advice, or a recommendation within the meaning of regulations promulgated by the Financial Supervisory Commission. Readers in Taiwan should be aware that this document is provided strictly as commodity market research and should not be construed as advice to engage in any securities or futures transaction.

Mainland China. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in Mainland China where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation. BX-TRADE is not registered with or licensed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission or any other regulatory authority in Mainland China as a securities or futures advisory service provider. This document does not constitute investment advice, securities research, or futures advisory services within the meaning of the Securities Law, the Futures and Derivatives Law, or measures promulgated thereunder. Readers in Mainland China should not treat this document as a basis for any investment or trading decision.

General. Distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law. Persons who come into possession of this document should inform themselves of and observe all applicable legal and regulatory restrictions. BX-TRADE accepts no liability for any breach of such restrictions by any person.

Permitted Use

Forwarding. This publication may be forwarded to others only in its complete and unaltered form, including these notices.

No reproduction. No part of this publication, including its text, tables, figures and exhibits, may be reproduced, republished, excerpted, adapted, translated, distributed in part, or incorporated into any other document, presentation, database, product or service, by any means, without the prior written permission of Baixian.

No derivative modelling or data mining. This publication may not be used to reconstruct, reverse-engineer, replicate or calibrate the models, methods or parameters that produce it, or for text and data mining, or to train, develop or validate any model or automated system, without the prior written permission of Baixian.

Citation. Any reference to this publication must identify it as follows: BX-TRADE SAIRA WEEKLY, Issue No. 20, 2026

What Is Protected

Copyright. © 2026 Baixian. All rights reserved. The text, tables, exhibits, design and compilation of this publication are protected by the Copyright Act of Taiwan and the Berne Convention for the Protection of Literary and Artistic Works. The Baixian name and logo identify the source of this publication.

Proprietary methodology. This publication describes the forecasting framework at the level needed to read and check its results: the model families, the validation protocols and the measured record, including what the models did not achieve. It does not disclose the source code, parameter values, feature sets, calibration windows, threshold derivations, training selections or internal records that implement the framework. Those elements are kept confidential under access controls and are protected as trade secrets under the Trade Secrets Act of Taiwan and equivalent laws elsewhere. This publication grants no licence to them.

Enforcement. Baixian reserves all rights and remedies under the Copyright Act, the Trade Secrets Act, the Fair Trade Act and other applicable laws in Taiwan, and under the applicable laws of Mainland China and other jurisdictions.

Third-Party Data and Licences

Each third-party dataset used in this publication remains subject to its own terms. Those terms govern the third-party data only; they do not extend to, and grant no rights in, BX-TRADE's text, analysis, models, exhibits or compilation, which remain subject to the reservation of rights above. BX-TRADE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of data obtained from external sources, and the use of third-party data does not imply endorsement by the data providers of BX-TRADE's analysis, methodology or conclusions.

Global Fishing Watch (GFW). Vessel presence and fishing-effort data: Copyright 2026, Global Fishing Watch, Inc., https://globalfishingwatch.org/our-apis/. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC 4.0), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/. BX-TRADE has aggregated and transformed these data into hull-day counts, weekly fleet positions, effort radii, position-forecast errors and capture scores; the exhibits built on them are marked "Powered by Global Fishing Watch". GFW provides its data as is, without warranty, and does not endorse this analysis. The licence applies to GFW's data, which are available from GFW under its terms; it grants no rights in BX-TRADE's analysis, exhibits or compilation.

Use of GFW data. GFW data are used solely in preparing this research publication. They are not sold, licensed or supplied to any person as a product or service, and the underlying GFW data are not redistributed.

Other sources.

Catch, vessel and grade data: TSSFA (台灣區遠洋魷魚暨秋刀魚公會), weekly vessel reporting, 2019–2026. Exact weekly catch is printed for the latest two weeks only; earlier weeks appear as multi-week or season totals.

Historical catch series: TSSFA public annual statistics, ROC years 66–114 (1977–2025).

Pre-season survey: Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency (FRA), サンマ長期漁海況予報 (annual, late July), 2018–2026 editions. Facts are stated in our own words; no FRA text, table or chart is reproduced.

In-season outlook: Japan Fisheries Information Service Center (JAFIC), サンマ中短期漁況予報, 2026 editions, stated in our own words.

Quota and management measures: North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC), conservation and management measures, public meeting documents, cumulative-catch tracker and vessel registry; Ministry of Agriculture, Republic of China (Taiwan).

Ocean fields: Copernicus Marine Service (E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information); NOAA (OISST and wave fields, public domain).

Forecast sea temperatures in Exhibit E55 are the E.U. Copernicus Marine Service's own model forecast, shown as issued on its native grid without processing, with the issuer and issue time stated. They are not a BX-TRADE forecast, and BX-TRADE makes no representation as to their accuracy.

Coastline: Natural Earth (public domain).

Length–weight and age-at-length: Suyama et al. (2015); Huang (2007); Ginting & Huang (2023). Further literature is cited where it is used.

Contact

For questions regarding this document or permissions, please contact: Global Trade Business Group (BX-TRADE), Commodity Research & Strategy Division (國際貿易事業群 大宗商品研究與策略組 BX-TRADE-CRS) · Email: crs@baixiangroup.com · Tel: +886 7 536 8337

中文摘要（以英文為準）。 本刊物由百鮮國際貿易事業群（BX-TRADE）大宗商品研究與策略組編製，供一般發布，不以銷售或訂閱方式提供；其發布並不授權、亦不揭露產生本刊物之專有模型、方法、程式碼、參數、資料及紀錄。本刊物為商品研究資料，非投資建議，亦非任何商品或衍生工具之要約或推薦；所載預測與參考值含不確定性，實際結果可能重大不同。使用限制：本刊物僅得以完整且未經修改之形式（含本聲明）轉發。未經百鮮事先書面許可，不得以任何方式重製、轉載、摘錄、改作、翻譯或部分散布本刊物之任何部分（包括文字、表格、圖表），或將其納入任何文件、簡報、資料庫、產品或服務；亦不得據以重建、還原、複製或校準產生本刊物之模型、方法或參數，或將本刊物用於文字與資料探勘，或任何模型、自動化系統之訓練、開發或驗證。提及本刊物時，須依下列方式註明出處：BX-TRADE SAIRA WEEKLY，2026 年第 20 期。受保護之內容：本刊物之文字、表格、圖表、設計與編排之著作權屬百鮮，保留一切權利；本刊物說明模型架構、驗證方法與實測紀錄，但未公開程式碼、參數、特徵、校準期間、門檻推導與內部紀錄，該等內容以保密措施管理，依營業秘密法保護。第三方資料：各第三方資料依其原授權條款；該等條款僅適用於第三方資料本身，不及於 BX-TRADE 之文字、分析、模型、圖表或編排。GFW（Global Fishing Watch, Inc.）資料依 CC BY-NC 4.0 授權（Copyright 2026, Global Fishing Watch, Inc.），經 BX-TRADE 彙整轉換，僅用於編製本研究刊物，不作為任何產品或服務販售、授權或提供，原始資料亦不再散布。圖表E55之預報海溫為歐盟 Copernicus Marine Service 發布之模式預報，依原發布內容於其原始網格呈現、未經加工，並載明發布單位及發布時間；非 BX-TRADE 之預報，BX-TRADE 對其準確性不作任何陳述。© 2026 百鮮。版權所有。