アルゼンチンマツイカ

Illex argentinus is semelparous: each generation spawns once and dies, and the entire population turns over every year. There is no multi-year stock to buffer a weak season — in effect, the season is the cohort. Because the catch is one cohort aging in real time, the weekly shift in size composition tracks the population's biological progression, and the season ends on a biological clock rather than when fishing effort runs out. This lifecycle, established in the cephalopod literature, is the foundation everything else rests on.

We do not rely on any one forecasting model. Several independent statistical approaches are run in parallel and combined into a single estimate, weighted by how each has performed against the data as the season progresses. The output is a set of scenarios — a base case alongside lower and higher cases, each with an associated probability — not a single number presented as certainty.