2026 Illex Season: Catch Trajectory & Forecast Analysis
The WK14 spawning aggregation — 4,343 MT, a 51.3% surge over WK13 without precedent in the five-season panel — resets the season. The four-model BMA ensemble lifts the full-season base case 18.0% to 35,309 MT (Bull 37,383, 35%; Bear 32,541, 10%).
Week 14 delivered the season's most significant single-week development: a 4,343 MT catch, a 51.3% surge over WK13 without precedent in the five-season panel. Fleet-wide CPUE surged to 7.95 MT/vessel across 78 vessels — the biological signature of a cohort aggregating for spawning migration rather than a recovery in the conventional sense. The four-model BMA ensemble lifts the full-season base case 18.0% to 35,309 MT and narrows the bear probability to 10%, as a near-term cessation becomes inconsistent with fleet-wide access to a broad stock concentration.
The WK14 spawning aggregation turns operational signals bullish as maturation advances; the bull case opens to 35%.
Drag next week's catch; the projected base and regime verdict update from the report's own thresholds.
This is the public summary. The full 24-page bilingual brief is distributed to intended recipients.
The complete issue carries the full data tables, every model output and weighting, the size-grade and fleet detail, and the week-by-week signal monitor — in English and 繁體中文.
Research disclaimer.This publication is produced by Baixian Trade Commodity Research & Strategy for commercial and informational purposes only. It is current as of the stated week-ending date and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice, nor an offer or solicitation. Forecasts are model-derived estimates subject to revision; forward-looking figures involve uncertainty and should not be relied upon as guarantees. Regulatory and stock-assessment references reflect third-party findings and are reported without endorsement. Taiwan-origin and mainland-China-origin catch are distinguished for analytical accuracy only. See the full disclaimers for terms.